Bill Frieder’s Final Four Prediction

03/28/2012

Well, we’re off to New Orleans with four teams that are really good. No big shocks here. You might say that Louisville is a surprise, but if you ask me, the Big East Tournament champion in the Final Four should never be called a shock. To win at Madison Square Garden, you have to be pretty good. I think we learned this last year when UConn rolled through both the Big East and NCAA Tournaments. You win that tournament, you have to be among a handful of teams that can make the Final Four. Remember that West Virginia made the Final Four the previous season after winning the Big East Tournament.

As someone who watched Louisville in Portland and in Phoenix, I can tell you they have the look of a team that could win it all. Yes, I know they are the lowest-seeded team of the four. But if you have yourself a big-time point guard, a shot-blocker, a hot team and a coach who has been here so many times before, you’d be a fool to rule that team out. That said…

Those Wildcats from just down the block are unreal. Kentucky has pros all over the court and they are playing like a team. The job that Coach Calipari is doing with this group is phenomenal. All of their players averaged about 25 points a game in high school. To get them to buy in to distribute the ball and play defense says so much about Calipari. But, my gosh, if he loses to Louisville no one will care one bit. That is the nature of the beast when two teams from the same state play in the Final Four. The last time it happened was 50 years ago, and if you don’t think that was a big deal you’re not paying attention. Cincinnati beat Ohio State in ’61 and ’62 — and then they didn’t play again until 2006! But let’s be honest… Calipari has arguably the top two picks in the draft. Every single one of his players can go one-on-one. They play defense every possession and play it well.

You have to give credit to Bill Self. If it is possible for a Kansas team to slide under the radar, this one did. All anyone talked about this year in the Big 12 was Baylor, Baylor’s uniforms, conference expansion, Missouri’s coaching search, Missouri’s great run, Iowa State’s great run…and, oh by the way, Kansas. Imagine that? Kansas was like the fourth or fifth talking point this year.

Thad Matta is a good guy who has done great things every place he’s been. He helped put Butler on the map, he made a great job at Xavier even better and now has Ohio State on the doorstep of a national title. Thad doesn’t have a title to his credit… yet. But I think it will be a battle of two great coaches without a national title on Monday. Ohio State and Kentucky, Calipari and Matta, Sullinger and Davis. Blue vs. Red.

And Blue wins on Monday!

— Bill Frieder

Former Michigan and Arizona State head coach Bill Frieder is an analyst for Westwood One’s coverage of NCAA Basketball. In his weekly blog Boxed Out, Bill scours the box scores to bring you interesting stories from the world of college basketball. This weekend Bill will be in New Orleans for the Final Four. You can listen to all the games right here on WestwoodOneSports.com.

Most Recent NCAA Basketball Posts

Texas A&M v Houston

Higher seeds advance on Sunday, Sweet 16 set

25 March 2024
Seven of eight higher seeds advanced to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament in Sunday’s Second Round action. Trailing by 13 points with less than four minutes to play, Texas A&M staged an improbable comeback to force overtime courtesy of a buzzer beating three pointer. However, 1-seed Houston emerged…
Read More »
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Second Round Pittsburgh

Two Overtime Games Highlight A Classic Second Round

24 March 2024
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania was the place to be for Saturday’s action as both games at PPG Paints Arena went into extra periods. First it was the two biggest surprises of the tournament so far who pushed each other to the limit in a 79-73 NC State win against Oakland, and in…
Read More »
yale header

Four double-digit seeds advance in action-packed Friday

23 March 2024
No. 13 seed Yale rallied from a 10-point second-half deficit to stun the No. 4 seed and SEC Tournament champion Auburn Tigers, with 28 points from John Poulakidas and a key block in the waning seconds securing the school’s second-ever NCAA Tournament win. UPSET ALERT" #MARCHMADNESS"You are going to want…
Read More »
DAYTON, OHIO - MARCH 20: KJ Simpson #2 of the Colorado Buffaloes drives to the basket against Andrew Meadow #13 of the Boise State Broncos during the first half in the First Four game of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at University of Dayton Arena on March 20, 2024 in Dayton, Ohio. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

Grambling, Colorado advance after First Four thrillers

21 March 2024
If the First Four is any indication, the 2024 NCAA DI Men’s Basketball Tournament is sure to be full of Madness. Grambling State got the action started with a thrilling 88-81 come-from-behind overtime win over Montana State. The Tigers advance and will play No. 1 Purdue on Friday. Grambling State…
Read More »
Colorado State v Virginia

Wagner and Colorado State notch First Four wins

19 March 2024
The 2024 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament began with the Northeast Conference and Mountain West Conference seeing members advance to Thursday’s First Round. The night began with a battle of 16 seeds, where Wagner built a second half lead as large as 17 points before holding on to defeat Howard 71-68.…
Read More »
Load more posts