One thing we’ve learned recently is that the four #1 seeds probably won’t be decided until the conference tournaments. Indiana is there for sure and probably Duke, providing they beat Miami at home. From there, it’s wide open and could be a second Big Ten team, Gonzaga, Miami (if they beat Duke), Florida or even Georgetown.
Hoya hype:
Speaking of the Hoyas, what a great victory at Syracuse and what a spectacular performance from Otto Porter, Jr. He just joined the Player of the Year candidates, as he scored from all over and absolutely controlled the game as Georgetown rolled to its 9th straight victory. If the Hoyas win tonight at UConn, they must be considered for a 2 or 3 seed, with a chance for a #1 if they finish strong.
Riding shotgun with Marty McFly:
We are going to go back in time to January 19th to show you why you never should get down on your team too early in the year. Let’s call it the Super Bowl Rule and it’s a simple as this: you can’t count your team out until after the Super Bowl.
On the second to last Saturday in January, Stanford handled California easily 69-59 to drop the Golden Bears to 10-7 overall and 2-3 in the Pac-12. Cal had lost four of six and things weren’t exactly all smiles a week later when it lost at Colorado to fall to 11-8 and 3-4. But Mike Montgomery didn’t lose faith. His team got a three-point win over Oregon State and notched a four-point win over Oregon to start an amazing run of seven wins in its past eight games, with Cal’s only loss coming against Arizona State in Tempe. Since that defeat to Stanford, Cal is 8-2 and in that time has road wins at Oregon and at Arizona and a beat down of UCLA.
On that same Saturday in January, Villanova had lost its third straight after a defeat against Providence and was 11-7 and 2-3 in the Big East (sound familiar?). Now? Villanova has four separate top-25 wins (Louisville, Syracuse, UCONN and Marquette). All of these took place since January 22nd. Remember, the Wildcats were 2-3 in the Big East and Louisville was coming to town, followed by Syracuse right after that. Their season was over as they looked set to fall to 2-5 in conference. Except that’s not what happened. Before they’d even kicked the ball at the Pro Bowl in Hawaii – a whole week before the big game in New Orleans – ‘Nova had turned the tables.
Now, here is the other side of the coin. A week later, on January 26th, Baylor was 14-5 and 5-1 in the Big 12. What followed is a skid that might not end well. The Bears lost to Oklahoma at home, then got beat in back-to-back road games by Iowa State and Oklahoma State. All of a sudden, Baylor is 14-8 and 5-4 and fighting like crazy to find a win. It beats two of the bottom teams of the Big 12 in Texas Tech and West Virginia, but a 20-point loss at Kansas State, another loss to Iowa State (this one in Waco) and then a 14-point loss to Oklahoma in Norman that wasn’t that close follow. Guess who is now 16-11 and 7-7 in the Big 12? And what’s left on the schedule? How about road games with teams playing for pride (WVU and Texas) and home contests against two teams fighting for the Big 12 title in Kansas and Kansas State. Baylor could easily end up 18-13 overall and 9-9 in the conference and that might not be good enough.
Lobos riding high:
One more look back to January 26th. On that Saturday, San Diego State trounced New Mexico 55-34 in San Diego. But since then, the Lobos have been on a tear, only losing once (in Vegas against UNLV). Last Saturday, New Mexico snapped Colorado State’s 27-game home winning streak as Kendall Williams scored 46 – including an incredibly 10 threes on just 13 attempts. WOW!!! Bottom line is Williams scored 12 more points Saturday than his whole team did against the Aztecs a month earlier. It will be fun too see how Williams and New Mexico fare against SDSU’s tough defense in The Pit tonight. That’s your first viewing assignment for this week. Other don’t-miss games this week are listed below…
Additional homework:
- Gonzaga @ BYU, Thursday, 11 PM ET: The Zags are two wins away from running the table in the WCC. Chances are Saturday’s home game against an 11-19 Portland team isn’t going to trip them up. But a trip to Provo? Gonzaga are still heavy favorites, but road games are never as simple as they seem.
- Louisville @ Syracuse, Saturday, 11:45 AM ET on Westwood One Sports: After back-to-back losses, the Orange need a win or they’re in danger of slipping out of the top four in the Big East and the double-bye at Madison Square Garden.
- Miami @ Duke, Saturday, 6 PM Eastern: As mentioned above, the winner of this one has the inside track on a #1 seed in the tournament.
- Arizona @ UCLA, Saturday, 9 PM ET: It’s a big weekend at Pauley Pavilion. John Tautges and I will be there tonight as UCLA hosts Arizona State on Westwood One Sports (11:15 PM Eastern), then the Sun Devils’ neighbors from Tucson come calling on Saturday. We’ll know a lot more about the Pac-12 after these games.
- Michigan State @ Michigan, Sunday, 4 PM ET: The Big Ten’s two top-ten teams not named Indiana go head-to-head again. Michigan State came out on top in East Lansing a few weeks ago. Can the Wolverines defend their home court too?
Should be a great week of college hoops. Look forward to looking back on it (and forward too) next week. Until then…
– Bill Frieder
Former Michigan and Arizona State head coach Bill Frieder is an analyst for Westwood One’s coverage of NCAA Basketball. In his weekly blog Boxed Out, Bill scours the box scores to bring you interesting stories from the world of college basketball.
